Abstract:
The purpose of the study was to apply an illness-to-death model that will
enable us to observe the transition intensities of patients during rehabilitation
at some discrete points in time. Finally, discover some risk factors of stroke
and estimate the average length of stay of patients at different levels of disease
states. A typical review of literature on stroke studies in many research works
revealed that none of the articles estimated the possible probabilities of
transiting from one disease state to another. To fill this gap, we employed
Continuous Time Markov Model (CTMC) in Multi-state Models (MSM) to
observe the transition rates of the patients at two monthly intervals for two
years. Patient variables are age, sex, marital status, religion, educational
status, occupation, location of the patient, comorbidity type, local treatment,
smoking, alcohol intake, and hemiparesis. Results from our study reveal that
the male sex, local treatment, and patients free from comorbidity contributed
to early recovery in all states than the female sex, with no local treatment and
one or more comorbidity. Patients with one or more comorbidity and alcohol
intake decline in recovery. The outcome of the transition analysis indicated
that patients with mild stroke remain in this state for about ten (10) months
before recovery and will never become severe if the patient adheres to
treatment. While old and older age groups have some chance of transiting to a
less severe state and similar rates of transitioning from mild to a more severe
state, the youth have better conditions in these states than these two groups.
Further research should be carried out to investigate the role of traditional
therapy in stroke rehabilitation.
