Assessment of potential impact of climate change on peanut yield in Senegal through a modelling approach

Abstract

This study assess of the potential impact of climate change on peanut yield in Senegal. Seven field experiments were conducted at three sites in the dry seasons of 2014 and 2015 and the rainy season of 2014. SIMPLACE1 crop model was calibration and validation at two sites Bambey and Nioro and for two peanut cultivars over two years. To assess the impact of climate change on peanut growth and yield in Senegal, outputs of four Regional Climate Models were used together accounting for impacts with and without consideration of elevated CO2. The effects of fertilizer application on peanut in three different sites, Bambey, Nioro and Sinthiou Malem were not significantly different between fertilizer levels. Under water stressed conditions, the seed yield was more affected than the biomass yield. Seed yield decreased by 33% when stress occurred at flowering period and by 50% when stress occurred during seed filling. In dry season when the plants were subjected to periodic heat stress conditions, yield simulations were markedly improved when canopy temperature was considered instead of air temperature. Projected climate change without CO2 elevation may impact negatively biomass and seed yield for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, positive yield changes result when CO2 concentration increase of up to 5.4% and 12.4% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively for biomass and for seed yield up to 9.6% for RCP4.5 and 13.2% for RCP8.5. Short season varieties had greater relative yield changes and can therefore be recommended in these two sites to cope with the impact of early rain cessation. It is concluded that climate change will have positive impact on peanut yield in Senegal due to the elevated of CO2 concentration.