Vulnerability of cocoa production to climate change: a case of the Western and Central Regions in Ghana

Abstract

This research work focused on the effect of climate change on cocoa yield in some selected cocoa districts in the Eastern, Ashanti, Western and Central Regions of Ghana. For sustainable cocoa production, weather, which is an uncontrollable variable, is an important factor whose effect on cocoa is difficult to quantify in a field environment. This research has two components; effects of climate change on cocoa production in Ghana and coping strategies of cocoa farmers. The Heckman’s probit model and multinomial logit regression were used to measure the level of vulnerability and determine the factors that influence farmers’ choice of coping strategies. The effects of two major weather parameters – rainfall and temperature – on cocoa yield were evaluated over thirteen years. The study revealed that there is a weak positive correlation with rainfall, that is, increase in rainfall results in an increase in yield. A relatively stronger positive correlation was established for maximum temperature. About seventeen percent (17.2%) of the variations in yield can be explained by the predictor variables. A one unit increase in temperature will result in a 2593.67 unit in yield and a one unit increase in rainfall will result in a 11.76 unit increase in yield. Cocoa production is thus vulnerable without adaptation. It was observed that adaptation could be behavioural, institutional and technological, and may differ from one locality to another.