Statistical Modelling of Fertility Rate of Ghana

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to model the fertility rate of Ghana. The study is based on Ghana’s fertility data that spans the years 2014 – 2020. Three standard fertility models – the Hadwiger, Gamma, and Beta model – are fitted to the data with the view of selecting the best model. The study shows that there were, on average, 332 live births per 100,000 women for the period 2014 – 2020. In the period, number of live births lingered between 41 per 1,000,000 women and 741 per 100,000 women. The results further show that the distribution of Ghana’s fertility is positively skewed. A significant observation in the study is that there is, on yearly basis, continuous decline in the fertility rate of Ghana. Ghana’s fertility is highest among women in the 25 – 30 reproductive ages. The study finds the Hadwiger model most suitable for modelling Ghana’s fertility data. The results indicate that forecasted fertility rates for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023 appear to be higher than the actual ASFRs for the year 2020 for women below the age of about 30 years. The projected values show that there will be 393, 393, and 392 live births per 100,000 women for the respective years 2021, 2022, and 2023. In addition, for the period 2021 – 2023, the ASFRs of Ghana will continue to decline with highest fertility rate occurring among women in the 25 – 29 reproduction years. The study is of the view that Government and its agencies, the National Population Council, and other planners and policy makers adopts the Hadwiger fertility model in their quest to estimate various fertility rates of Ghana for planning and decision-making process. Also, the study recommends further investigation into factors that influence the decline in fertility rate of Ghana.