Statistical analysis of revenue contributions of some high risk goods at Tema Port

Abstract

The study analyzed imports revenue contributions from six high-risk commodities obtained from the Inspection and Control Services Company at Tema port. The six items were Auto-parts, Rice, Computers and Accessories, Household Electricals, Poultry Products and Used Clothing. The data covered five years from 2004 to 2008. The objective was to obtain revenue estimates of these six items. Another objective was to provide forecasts of yearly total revenue based on the five years revenue data. In order to achieve these objectives, dummy variable regression model and trend model were used. Initial exploration of the data revealed that the revenue contribution of the six items increased with increasing line items. It was observed that even though the line item of rice was the least in the period, it contributed the highest to revenue. The dummy variable model involved only three of the six initially selected items. These three variables, which are Auto-parts, Rice, and Household. Electricals, were found to contribute significantly to the total revenue from the six items. The model explained 86 percent of variation in revenue from the three items.Using a linear trend model, it was found that the average yearly total revenue from import was expected to increase by an amount of $8,761,463.00 each year. By this pattern, the total yearly import revenue in 2011 was expected to reach $129,600,314.00. The findings of this study show that an outright ban on Auto-parts, Rice, and Household Electricals, would not be in the interest of revenue mobilization.